Tom qab qhov tsis tshua muaj kev lag luam nyob rau thaum xyoo 2015, cov kev ua lag luam nyob rau hauv 2016 yuav ua rau cov neeg ploj mus ntev "kub muag plaub qhov muag", ua rau cov khoom hnyav tshaj hauv plaub lub xyoo plaub ntawm xyoo los ntawm ib txhiab yuan, pua pua ntawm cov nyiaj steel Yuan, ntau tshaj li 85% ntawm cov steel mills ua profits, thiab cov lag luam loj thiab nruab nrab steel hlau poob mus rau profit thiab pom tau tias muaj nyiaj tau 604 plhom yuan. Lub lag luam hlau lag luam zoo ib ntus, vim yog kev pabcuam ntawm cov qauv kev lagluam xws li kev khwv nyiaj txiag ruaj khov, kev lag luam kev hloov, kev lagluam hloov thiab lwm yam kev lagluam xws li kev tuaj yeem ua lag luam thiab kev ua lag luam, khoom tsim, thiab kev lagluam.
Fundamental yug steel nqi kub hnyiab
Nyob hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, cov hlau nyhav raws li tag nrho pom tau tias "thib ob nthwv dej nce thiab ib kauj ruam tom khw" kev ua lag luam. Ntawm lawv, "thawj nthwv dej ntawm kev sib tw" yog vim yog txoj kev tiv thaiv khwv tau los ntawm cov khoom lag luam uas tsis tshua muaj nqes hlau; "qhov thib ob yoj ntawm kev sib tw" yog qhov tshwm sim los ntawm kev ua lag luam speculation raws li lub hauv paus tseem ceeb ntawm txoj cai ua kom nrov loj; "Qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws yog tias txoj cai ntawm kev poob kev cuam tshuam rau qhov poob qis ntawm kev poob qis tau tshwm sim los ntawm tus nqi qis rau ntawm nqis roob. kev txhawb nqa yog lub khw muag khoom siv.
Ntawm sab txaus: Raws li kev txheeb cais los ntawm kev ua lag luam cov koom haum, qhov nruab nrab ntawm kev ua hauj lwm ntawm qhov cub tawg hauv 163 steel mills nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo yog 77.29%, down 9.57% xyoo-rau-xyoo. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Suav Teb Hlau Hlau thiab Hlau Association, qhov nruab nrab txhua hnub tso zis ntawm cov nyom steel hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo yog 1.6403 lab tons, uas yog ib xyoo-rau-lub xyoo txo ntawm 4.56%. Nws yuav pom tau tias nyob rau hauv cov kev mob ntawm tsawg kev khiav hauj lwm cov nqi ntawm cov steel mills, kev lag luam tau cog lus thiab cov nqi steel tau nce.
Cov Lus Qhia: Nyob rau thawj nrab ntawm lub xyoo, qhov nruab nrab ntawm Tshooj ntawm cov khoom loj yog 10.0733 lab tons, ib xyoo raug txo ntawm 23%. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Suav Teb Hlau Hlau thiab hlau Association, qhov nruab nrab Tshuag ntawm nruab nrab thiab loj tsuas yog mills yog 1,33,490 tons hauv ib lub lim tiam, down 16.36% xyoo-rau-lub xyoo. Qhov no qhia tau hais tias lub lag luam destocking tau nce ntau piv rau tib lub sijhawm hauv xyoo 2015, uas txhawb nqa tag nrho nce nqi hauv cov nqi steel.
Lub Hauv Paus: Raws li lub National Bureau of Statistics, txij thaum lub Ib Hlis mus txog rau lub Tsib Hlis, cov peev hauv kev tsim kev lag luam nyob hauv lub tebchaws tau nce li ntawm 7% xyoo-rau-lub xyoo, thiab qhov kev loj hlob qis qeeb yog 0.2% ntawm Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj mus txog Plaub Hlis; ntawm thaj chaw ntawm kev tsim kho vaj tse nce li ntawm 5.6% xyoo-rau-lub xyoo, thiab qhov kev loj hlob qis dua kuj yog txij li lub Ib Hlis mus txog rau Lub Plaub Hlis. Tos 0.2% ntsiab lus. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm cov koomhaum ua lag luam, cov khoom siv tsis yog xim hlau (iav, cement, thiab lwm yam) hloov mus nyob hauv tsawg dua 2% hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, thaum cov hlau lo thiab lwm cov qauv steel nqi ntau npaum li 22 %, li 11 zaug. Qhov no qhia tau tias lub tsev muag khoom vaj tse zoo tshaj qhov qub caij nyoog hauv xyoo 2015, tab sis qhov kev loj hlob tseem qeeb. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, nws tseem qhia tau hais tias lub txiaj ntsim tiag tiag ntawm kev lag luam ntawm kev lag luam nyob rau hauv cov hlau lag luam tau qis, tsuas yog qhov kev xav tau.
Cov nqes hlau yuav nce tau
Raws li nws Hangsheng, lub lag luam ua lag luam lub steel tuam txhab, nyob rau thawj nrab ntawm lub xyoo no, lub tsev lag luam steel hlau "sim tawm, de-muaj peev xwm, muaj teeb meem, pib qis, tsawg tus nqi, tsis tshua muaj txij nkawm, profitability high, muaj kev loj hlob zoo, "thiab" peb mus rau peb lub siab. " Nyob rau hauv lub tej yam kev mob ntawm "ob highs thiab ib ruaj", tag nrho cov steel nqi pom ib tug ua kom sov. Txawm li cas los xij, nrog poob nqi ntawm cov nqi hauv nruab nrab ntawm lub xyoo, qhov qis ntawm profitability ntawm steel mills, thiab zawm ntawm cov nyiaj hauv tuam txhab, thiab steel kev lag luam yog nyob rau hauv ib qho off-season, cov nqi steel yog tseem ntog. Nws yog Hangsheng kwv yees hais tias nyob rau hauv peb lub hlis twg, tag nrho ore nqe yuav poob. Txawm li cas los xij, txoj cai cov kev txwv ntawm Tangshan World Horticultural Exposition thiab Hangzhou G20 Summit yuav ob qho tiav los ntawm lub Kaum Hlis. Qhov "silver ten" steel market lub caij yuav tau ua raws. Lub sijhawm ua rau cov khoom lag luam qis yuav xaus. Nws xav pom tias qhov no yog qhov kawg ntawm xyoo 2016. Ib qho kev nce ntxiv.
Nyob hauv cov ntsiab lus, Nws Hangsheng twv tau pom tias cov nqi hnyav rau hauv lub xyoo thib ob yuav qhia txog "W-shaped" sib txawv ntawm "thawj zaug, ces nce, thiab rov qab poob dua"; cov hlau index yuav tsum ncov ntawm 720 ntsiab lus thiab qhov qis tshaj ntawm 550 cov ntsiab lus.